Decline Curve Calculator
Forecast production decline using exponential or hyperbolic models.
Inputs
bbl/day
%
years
Results
Final Rate
25.5 bbl/day
Cumulative Production
585,751 bbl
Total Decline94.9%
Average Rate160.4 bbl/day
Monthly Decline0.03
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter initial production rate (bbl/day) and annual nominal decline rate (%).
- Select decline type: exponential (conservative) or hyperbolic, and enter the hyperbolic b factor if applicable.
- Enter forecast period (years).
- Read EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) and production rate at end of forecast period.
- Compare exponential vs. hyperbolic forecasts to understand reserve uncertainty range.
How the result changes with Forecast Period
| Forecast Period | Final Rate | Cumulative Production |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | 0 bbl/day | 475,413 bbl |
| 15 | 5.7 bbl/day | 609,594 bbl |
| 26 | 0.2 bbl/day | 616,189 bbl |
| 36 | 0 bbl/day | 616,429 bbl |
What each input means
- Initial Production Rate
- Initial production rate at time zero.
- Annual Decline Rate
- Annual nominal decline rate.
- Decline Type
- Decline model type. Exponential is conservative.
- Hyperbolic b Factor
- Hyperbolic exponent (b). Only used for hyperbolic decline.
- Forecast Period
- Number of years to forecast.
How this is calculated
Worked example, using the default values
- Identify Input Parameters4 parametersInitial Production Rate = 500, Annual Decline Rate = 30, Decline Type = 0, Hyperbolic b Factor = 1 = 5 input(s) provided
- Calculate Final RateFinal Rate25.5 = 25.5
- Calculate Cumulative ProductionCumulative Production585751 = 585751
- Calculate Total DeclineTotal Decline94.9 = 94.9
- Calculate Average RateAverage Rate160.4 = 160.4
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