Space Debris Risk Calculator

Collision probability from object density and orbital altitude.

Orbital altitude (km)

Cross-section area (m²)

Mission duration (years)

Whipple shield (mm)

Can maneuver (1=yes, 0=no)

Tab to move between fields

P(collision >10cm) %

P(collision >1cm) %

0.05

P(catastrophic) %

0.05

P(collision >1mm) %4.62

Annual P(tracked) %0

Expected 1mm+ impacts0.05

Debris density >1cm (/km³)0

How to Use This Calculator

Enter orbital altitude (km), spacecraft cross-section area (m²), and mission duration (years).
Set Whipple shield thickness (mm) and indicate whether the spacecraft can maneuver.
Review probability of collision with tracked objects (>10 cm), centimeter-scale debris, and millimeter debris.
Catastrophic collision probability should be below 0.001 (0.1%) for the mission lifetime.
Maneuverability dramatically reduces risk — even one debris avoidance maneuver per year matters.

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