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Calcimator

Population Viability Analysis Calculator

Estimate extinction probability from population size and environmental/demographic variability using diffusion approximation models.

Inputs

years

Results

Extinction Probability

84.53%

Viability Rating

Non-Viable (High Risk)

Expected Population at End479
Stochastic Growth Rate0.87%/yr
Mean Time to Extinction1 years
Total Variance2.26%
MVP (Short-Term, 50/500 Rule)50
MVP (Long-Term, 50/500 Rule)500
How to Use This Calculator
  1. Enter Current Population Size — use the most recent survey estimate with its uncertainty range.
  2. Set Mean Annual Growth Rate (lambda) from long-term monitoring data or published life-table analyses.
  3. Input Environmental Variability and Demographic Variability to capture stochastic extinction risk.
  4. Set Time Horizon (years) for the projection period (50 and 100 years are standard IUCN benchmarks).
  5. Enter Quasi-Extinction Threshold — the minimum population size considered functionally extinct.
  6. Review Extinction Probability (%) and Viability Rating to assess conservation status and prioritize intervention efforts.
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