Population Viability Analysis Calculator
Estimate extinction probability from population size and environmental/demographic variability using diffusion approximation models.
Inputs
years
Results
Extinction Probability
84.53%
Viability Rating
Non-Viable (High Risk)
Expected Population at End479
Stochastic Growth Rate0.87%/yr
Mean Time to Extinction1 years
Total Variance2.26%
MVP (Short-Term, 50/500 Rule)50
MVP (Long-Term, 50/500 Rule)500
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter Current Population Size — use the most recent survey estimate with its uncertainty range.
- Set Mean Annual Growth Rate (lambda) from long-term monitoring data or published life-table analyses.
- Input Environmental Variability and Demographic Variability to capture stochastic extinction risk.
- Set Time Horizon (years) for the projection period (50 and 100 years are standard IUCN benchmarks).
- Enter Quasi-Extinction Threshold — the minimum population size considered functionally extinct.
- Review Extinction Probability (%) and Viability Rating to assess conservation status and prioritize intervention efforts.
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