Carry Calculator
Storage returns from futures spread between contract months.
About this calculator
"Carry" in the grain markets is the price premium a deferred futures contract trades at over a nearer one, and it exists specifically to compensate someone for storing the physical commodity between those two months. This calculator computes carry as simply the deferred futures price minus the near-month futures price. It then separately estimates what storage actually costs you over that same stretch: a flat storage fee per bushel per month times the number of months, plus an interest cost that treats the value tied up in stored grain (valued at the near-month price) as capital you're forgoing other uses for, prorated by the fraction of a year involved. Total carry cost is those two added together.
Net return to storage is carry minus total carry cost — a positive number means the market is paying you enough to make storing worthwhile, while a negative number means the futures spread doesn't cover your real costs, in which case selling at harvest typically beats storing on a pure economics basis. The % of full carry figure divides market carry by your total carry cost: readings near or above 100% indicate the market is offering "full carry" or better, a signal that's traditionally read as bearish (the market is telling everyone to store rather than sell), while a low percentage suggests limited reward for storing. Note that this compares only futures-market carry, not your local cash basis, which can shift independently and change the real payoff to storing.
Inputs
Results
Carry ($/bu)
0.3
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the Near-Month Futures price and the Deferred (later) Futures price.
- Enter Months Between the two contract months.
- Enter Storage Cost per bushel per month and your current Interest Rate.
- Review Carry Per Bushel (the futures spread) and Total Carry Cost.
- Check Net Return Per Bushel and % of Full Carry to decide whether storing grain is profitable.
How the result changes with Deferred futures ($/bu)
| Deferred futures ($/bu) | Carry ($/bu) |
|---|---|
| 3.05 | -2.75 |
| 4.57 | -1.23 |
| 9.15 | 3.35 |
| 15 | 9.2 |
What each input means
- Near-month futures ($/bu)
- Near-month futures contract price.
- Deferred futures ($/bu)
- Deferred (later) futures contract price.
- Months between
- Months between the two contract months.
- Storage ($/bu/mo)
- Monthly storage cost per bushel.
- Interest rate (%)
- Annual interest rate for opportunity cost.
What each result means
- Carry ($/bu)
- Futures spread (deferred minus near).
- Total carry cost ($/bu)
- Storage plus interest cost per bushel.
- Net return ($/bu)
- Carry minus carry cost (positive = profitable storage).
- % of full carry
- Market carry as percentage of full carry cost.
- Storage cost ($/bu)
- Total storage cost for the period.
- Interest cost ($/bu)
- Opportunity cost of capital.
How this is calculated
Worked example, using the default values
- Identify Input Parameters4 parametersNear-month futures ($/bu) = 5.8, Deferred futures ($/bu) = 6.1, Months between = 4, Storage ($/bu/mo) = 0.04 = 5 input(s) provided
- Calculate CarryCarry = round((deferredFutures - nearMonthFutures) * 10000) / 100000.3 = 0.3
- Calculate Total carry costTotal carry cost = round((storageCost + interestCost) * 10000) / 100000.2953 = 0.2953
- Calculate Net returnNet return = round((carry - totalCarryCost) * 10000) / 100000.0047 = 0.0047
Engine last updated . Checked against 2 independently-derived tests — how we verify calculators. Built by Paul Gunder, a software engineer, not a licensed financial, medical, or legal professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the "% of full carry" figure actually mean?
It's market carry (deferred futures minus near-month futures) divided by your total carry cost (storage plus interest) and expressed as a percentage. A reading near or above 100% means the futures spread is paying you as much as, or more than, storage actually costs — traditionally read as a bearish signal because it's the market openly rewarding storage instead of immediate selling.
Why does the interest cost use the near-month futures price instead of my local cash price?
The interest cost is meant to capture the opportunity cost of the capital tied up in grain while it sits in storage, and the calculator uses the near-month futures price as the stand-in value for that grain, prorated for the months-between period at your entered interest rate. It's a proxy for value, not a substitute for your actual local cash price.
What does it mean if my net return to storage comes out negative?
A negative net return means the futures spread between the deferred and near-month contracts isn't large enough to cover your combined storage fee and interest cost over that period. On a pure market-carry basis, that points toward selling at or near harvest rather than paying to store the grain and wait for the deferred month.
Does this calculator account for my local basis when it says storage is or isn't profitable?
No — it only measures futures-market carry, the spread between two futures contract months. Your local cash basis can move independently of that futures spread, so the real payoff to storing physical grain at your elevator can differ from what the futures-only carry calculation shows here.
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