Bullwhip Effect Calculator
Measure order variance amplification across the supply chain.
Inputs
periods
Results
Total Bullwhip Ratio
6
Retailer Amplification1.6
Wholesaler Amplification3
Manufacturer Amplification6
Demand CV0.02
Theoretical Amplification1.01
Excess Inventory Cost Index324.12
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the coefficient of variation of end-customer demand.
- Set the order lead time in periods.
- Input the number of supply chain tiers.
- Review the amplification ratio showing how demand variability grows upstream.
- Reduce the bullwhip effect by sharing point-of-sale data, shortening lead times, and smoothing order batching.
What each input means
- Consumer Demand Variance
- Variance of end-consumer demand.
- Retailer Order Variance
- Variance of retailer orders to wholesaler.
- Wholesaler Order Variance
- Variance of wholesaler orders to manufacturer.
- Manufacturer Order Variance
- Variance of manufacturer production orders.
- Average Consumer Demand
- Average consumer demand per period.
- Lead Time
- Average lead time in periods.
How this is calculated
Worked example, using the default values
- Identify Input Parameters4 parametersConsumer Demand Variance = 500, Retailer Order Variance = 800, Wholesaler Order Variance = 1500, Manufacturer Order Variance = 3000 = 6 input(s) provided
- Calculate Total Bullwhip RatioTotal Bullwhip Ratio6 = 6
- Calculate Retailer AmplificationRetailer Amplification1.6 = 1.6
- Calculate Wholesaler AmplificationWholesaler Amplification3 = 3
Engine last updated . Checked against 1 independently-derived test — how we verify calculators.
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