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Calcimator

Solar Degradation Calculator

Estimate solar panel output decline over a 25-year lifespan.

About this calculator

Solar panels lose a small amount of output every year, but that decline isn't uniform across a panel's lifetime — most panels experience a larger drop in their very first year of exposure to sunlight, a well-documented phenomenon called light-induced degradation, before settling into a much slower, steadier annual decline for every year after. This calculator models that two-phase pattern explicitly: it applies the first-year rate once to get year-one output, then compounds the smaller ongoing annual rate exponentially onto that already-reduced baseline for every subsequent year, rather than treating all years identically.

Compounding rather than simple linear subtraction matters here because a 0.5% annual decline applied to a shrinking output number produces a slightly gentler real-world decline curve than subtracting a flat percentage of the original rated output every year — the difference is small in any single year but adds up meaningfully across a 25-year system life. Lifetime production sums every year's output across the full projected system life, and revenue lost to degradation compares that same trajectory against what the system would have produced every single year if it never degraded at all, valued at your entered electricity rate — a way of putting a genuine dollar figure on the accumulated energy the system won't produce over its lifetime purely due to normal panel aging, separate from any other factor like weather, shading, or inverter downtime.

InputsLoading live data…

kWh/yr
%
%
years
$/kWh

Results

Final Output %

86.9%

Final Year Output

8,689 kWh

≈ 10 months of home electricity

Lifetime Production230,848 kWh
Revenue Lost to Degradation$2,873.00
How to Use This Calculator
  1. Enter your system's initial annual production at rated capacity, in kWh per year.
  2. Set the first-year degradation rate (typically 2-3% for most panels — higher than later years).
  3. Input the annual degradation rate after year 1 (typically 0.5-0.7%/year).
  4. Enter the number of years to project, and your electricity rate for estimating the revenue impact.
  5. Review the remaining output percentage and cumulative energy and revenue loss over the system life.

How the result changes with System Lifetime

System LifetimeFinal Output %Final Year Output
1392.3%9,228 kWh
1989.5%8,955 kWh
3881.4%8,141 kWh
4080.6%8,060 kWh

What each input means

Year 0 Production
Initial annual production at rated capacity.
First Year Degradation
Light-induced degradation in the first year (typically higher).
Annual Degradation
Annual output degradation rate after the first year.
System Lifetime
Number of years to project output.
Electricity Rate
Electricity rate for calculating revenue impact.

How this is calculated

Worked example, using the default values

  1. Identify Input Parameters
    4 parameters
    Year 0 Production = 10000, First Year Degradation = 2, Annual Degradation = 0.5, System Lifetime = 25 = 5 input(s) provided
  2. Calculate Final Output %
    Final Output %
    86.9 = 86.9
  3. Calculate Final Year Output
    Final Year Output
    8689 = 8689
  4. Calculate Lifetime Production
    Lifetime Production
    230848 = 230848
  5. Calculate Revenue Lost to Degradation
    Revenue Lost to Degradation
    2873 = $2,873

Engine last updated . Checked against 1 independently-derived test — how we verify calculators. Built by Paul Gunder, a software engineer, not a licensed financial, medical, or legal professional.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is first-year degradation typically higher than the annual rate afterward?

Most crystalline silicon solar cells undergo light-induced degradation (LID) during their first meaningful exposure to sunlight, a one-time structural settling in the cell material that causes a larger initial output drop than what happens in any subsequent year. After that first year, the cell has stabilized and the ongoing annual decline reflects slower, more gradual wear mechanisms, which is why manufacturers and this calculator both treat year one differently from every year that follows.

Why does the calculator compound the annual degradation rate instead of just subtracting it each year?

Compounding applies each year's degradation percentage to the previous year's already-reduced output rather than to the original rated output, which better reflects how real panel degradation actually behaves — a panel that's already lost some output loses a proportional amount of what remains, not a fixed slice of its original day-one capacity. Over a 25-year system life, this produces a meaningfully different (and generally more accurate) total than a simple year-by-year linear subtraction would.

What does 'Revenue Lost to Degradation' actually represent?

It's the cumulative dollar value of the energy your system won't produce over its lifetime purely because of normal panel aging, calculated by comparing your actual projected output each year against what the system would have produced every year if it stayed at its original, undegraded output level. It isolates degradation specifically — it doesn't include losses from other real-world factors like shading, soiling, or equipment downtime, which are separate issues this calculator doesn't model.

How much does a small difference in annual degradation rate actually matter over 25 years?

Because the rate compounds year over year, even a modest difference — say 0.3% versus 0.7% annual degradation — produces a noticeably different final output percentage after 25 years, since the gap widens with every additional year of compounding. This is why panel warranties and spec sheets typically guarantee a specific degradation rate ceiling, since it materially affects how much energy (and revenue) a system will realistically produce over its full lifespan.

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