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Calcimator

Endangered Species Recovery Calculator

Model population growth from breeding program parameters to predict recovery timeline and genetic diversity retention.

Inputs

years

Results

Recovery Outlook

Excellent — Strong Growth

Years to Recovery Target

17 years

Annual Growth Rate15%
Population Growth Rate (λ)1.15
10-Year Population Projection405
Effective Population Size (Ne)70
Genetic Diversity Retained97.2%
Genetic Loss per Generation0.71%
MVP StatusAbove Short-Term MVP (50), Below Long-Term
Annual Recruits30
Annual Deaths15
R0.14
How to Use This Calculator
  1. Enter the current population size and number of breeding pairs.
  2. Set offspring per pair per year and juvenile survival rate.
  3. Input adult annual survival rate, generation time, and recovery target population.
  4. Review the recovery outlook rating and estimated years to reach the target population.
  5. Use the annual growth rate to assess whether current management is sufficient.

What each input means

Current Population
Total number of individuals in the population.
Breeding Pairs
Number of actively breeding pairs.
Offspring per Pair per Year
Average number of offspring produced per breeding pair per year.
Juvenile Survival Rate
Percentage of offspring surviving to breeding age.
Annual Adult Survival
Annual survival rate of breeding-age adults.
Generation Time
Average age at first reproduction. Mice ~1 yr, songbirds ~2-3 yr, large mammals ~5-10 yr.
Recovery Target Population
Target population for downlisting or delisting. Typically set by recovery plan.

How this is calculated

Worked example, using the default values

  1. Identify Input Parameters
    4 parameters
    Current Population = 100, Breeding Pairs = 30, Offspring per Pair per Year = 2.5, Juvenile Survival Rate = 40 = 7 input(s) provided
  2. Calculate Recovery Outlook
    Excellent — Strong Growth = Excellent — Strong Growth
  3. Calculate Years to Recovery Target
    17 = 17
  4. Calculate Annual Growth Rate
    Annual Growth Rate
    15 = 15
  5. Calculate Population Growth Rate
    Population Growth Rate
    1.15 = 1.15

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