Tree Risk Assessment Calculator
Evaluate tree failure risk using ISA-style assessment with failure likelihood, target value, and impact severity.
About this calculator
This calculator borrows its likelihood ("Improbable" through "Imminent") and consequence ("Negligible" through "Severe") terminology from the International Society of Arboriculture's Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (ISA TRAQ) framework, the methodology most widely used in North American arboriculture. It is a simplified approximation, not a reproduction of the official ISA TRAQ process: the real TRAQ system runs Likelihood of Failure and Likelihood of Impact through one lookup matrix, then combines that result with Consequences through a second matrix to reach a final Low/Moderate/High/Extreme rating, rather than multiplying two 1-4 scores together the way this calculator's Risk Rating does. Here, Risk Rating starts as Failure Likelihood x Impact Severity (each on a 1-4 scale, for a 1-16 raw score), which Target Value then scales up or down depending on how much is at stake if the tree fails, capped at 16.
Recommended Inspection Interval is looked up directly from the resulting risk category -- from as often as monthly at Extreme risk to every three years at Low risk -- and Tree Size only enters the Liability Score, not the Risk Rating itself, since a large tree with the identical failure likelihood, target, and impact profile as a small one is treated as carrying more potential liability exposure. For actual liability decisions or removal orders, a credentialed TRAQ-qualified arborist's on-site assessment should always take precedence over this planning-level estimate.
Inputs
Results
Risk Rating (1-16)
4
Figures current as of 2026. Source: International Society of Arboriculture, Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (TRAQ), built on ISA's Best Management Practices: Tree Risk Assessment
How to Use This Calculator
- Select Failure Likelihood (Improbable, Possible, Probable, or Imminent) based on visible defects or structural concerns.
- Select Target Value (Low, Medium, or High) for what is within striking distance, and Impact Severity (Negligible, Minor, Significant, or Severe) for the consequences if it's struck.
- Select Tree Size (Small, Medium, or Large) based on the tree's approximate mature height.
- Review the Risk Rating (1-16) and Category (1=Low, 4=Extreme) results.
- Use Inspection Every (months) and Liability Score to plan re-inspection timing and prioritize mitigation.
What each input means
- Failure Likelihood
- Likelihood the tree or a tree part will fail structurally.
- Target Value
- What is within striking distance if the tree fails.
- Impact Severity
- Consequences if the tree or part strikes the target.
- Tree Size
- Approximate mature height of the tree.
How this is calculated
Worked example, using the default values
- Identify Input Parameters4 parametersFailure Likelihood = 2, Target Value = 2, Impact Severity = 2, Tree Size = 2 = 4 input(s) provided
- Calculate Risk Rating4 = 4
- Calculate Category1 = 1
- Calculate Inspection EveryInspection Every36 = 36
Figures and sources
- ISA Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (TRAQ) — likelihood and consequence terminology and methodology (2026) — International Society of Arboriculture, Tree Risk Assessment Qualification (TRAQ), built on ISA's Best Management Practices: Tree Risk Assessment
Engine last updated . Checked against 2 independently-derived tests — how we verify calculators. Built by Paul Gunder, a software engineer, not a licensed financial, medical, or legal professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this calculator use the official ISA TRAQ risk matrix?
Not exactly -- it borrows ISA TRAQ's likelihood and consequence terminology (Improbable through Imminent; Negligible through Severe) but computes Risk Rating as a direct multiplication of Failure Likelihood and Impact Severity, scaled by Target Value. The official ISA TRAQ process instead runs likelihood of failure and likelihood of impact through one matrix and combines that with consequences through a second matrix. Treat this tool as a planning-level approximation, not a substitute for a credentialed TRAQ assessment.
Why doesn't Tree Size change the Risk Rating?
Risk Rating in this calculator is built only from Failure Likelihood, Impact Severity, and Target Value -- Tree Size plays no part in that calculation. It only affects Liability Score, on the reasoning that a larger tree failing under the same likelihood, target, and impact conditions represents more potential exposure, even though the structural risk rating itself is unchanged.
How much does raising Target Value from Low to High change the Risk Rating?
Target Value applies a multiplier to the base Failure Likelihood x Impact Severity score: 0.5x for Low (open field), 1.0x for Medium (walkway, fence), and 1.5x for High (house, playground), so moving from Low to High triples that multiplier and can meaningfully raise the Risk Rating (1-16) figure. It does not, however, change the separate Category output -- that is determined only from Failure Likelihood and Impact Severity, so Target Value changes how much is at stake in the numeric rating without moving a tree between the Low/Moderate/High/Extreme category bands.
What determines how often a tree should be re-inspected?
Recommended Inspection Interval is looked up directly from the final Risk Category, not calculated from the individual inputs separately: Low risk suggests re-inspecting roughly every 3 years, Moderate every 12 months, High every 6 months, and Extreme monthly. Risk Category itself comes only from Failure Likelihood x Impact Severity, before Target Value's multiplier is applied, so a tree can move between inspection intervals whenever Failure Likelihood or Impact Severity changes -- Target Value changes the numeric Risk Rating (1-16) and Liability Score but does not move the Category or the inspection interval.
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