Plea Deal Calculator

Sentence comparison: plea offer vs trial risk.

Legal Disclaimer

This calculator provides general estimates only and does not constitute legal advice. Laws, regulations, and court procedures vary significantly by jurisdiction. Consult a licensed attorney in your area for advice specific to your situation.

Inputs

Plea Offer Sentence (months)

Potential Trial Sentence (months)

Estimated Conviction Probability (%)

Plea Deal Fine ($)

Potential Trial Fine ($)

Legal Cost for Plea ($)

Legal Cost for Trial ($)

Tab to move between fields

Results

Expected Trial Sentence (months)

Sentence Savings from Plea (months)

Legal Cost Savings ($)$14,500.00

Total Plea Cost ($)$46,000.00

Expected Total Trial Cost ($)$165,500.00

Total Savings from Plea ($)$119,500.00

Break-Even Conviction Rate (%)20

Plea Discount (%)80

Income Savings$105,000.00

How to Use This Calculator

Enter Plea Offer Sentence in months and Potential Trial Sentence if convicted.
Set Estimated Conviction Probability % based on evidence strength and attorney assessment.
Enter Plea Deal Fine and Potential Trial Fine amounts.
Input Legal Cost for Plea vs. Legal Cost for Trial.
Review Expected Trial Sentence — the probability-weighted outcome if you go to trial.
Compare Expected Trial outcome against the Plea Offer to make an informed decision alongside your attorney.

How the result changes with Potential Trial Sentence (months)

Potential Trial Sentence (months)	Expected Trial Sentence (months)	Sentence Savings from Plea (months)
60	42	30
210	147	135
390	273	261
540	378	366

What each input means

Plea Offer Sentence (months): Months of imprisonment/probation offered in the plea deal.
Potential Trial Sentence (months): Expected sentence if convicted at trial (use guideline midpoint).
Estimated Conviction Probability (%): Estimated likelihood of conviction at trial (federal conviction rate is ~90%; state varies 60-80%).
Plea Deal Fine ($): Fine amount included in the plea offer.
Potential Trial Fine ($): Expected fine if convicted at trial.
Legal Cost for Plea ($): Attorney fees to negotiate and process the plea agreement.
Legal Cost for Trial ($): Estimated total attorney fees and costs if case goes to trial.

What each result means

Expected Trial Sentence (months): Probability-weighted expected sentence if going to trial (conviction probability x trial sentence).
Sentence Savings from Plea (months): Months saved by taking the plea vs. expected trial outcome. Positive = plea is better.
Legal Cost Savings ($): Money saved in legal fees and fines by taking the plea. Positive = plea is cheaper.
Total Plea Cost ($): Total financial impact of plea (legal fees + fines + lost income).
Expected Total Trial Cost ($): Expected total financial impact of trial (probability-weighted).
Total Savings from Plea ($): Overall financial savings from plea vs trial (including lost income at $3,500/month).
Break-Even Conviction Rate (%): Conviction probability at which plea and trial have equal expected sentences.
Plea Discount (%): Percentage reduction in sentence from plea vs. maximum trial sentence.

How this is calculated

Worked example, using the default values

Identify Input Parameters
4 parameters
Plea Offer Sentence (months) = 12, Potential Trial Sentence (months) = 60, Estimated Conviction Probability (%) = 70, Plea Deal Fine ($) = 1000 = 7 input(s) provided
Calculate Expected Trial Sentence
Expected Trial Sentence
42 = 42
Calculate Sentence Savings from Plea
Sentence Savings from Plea
30 = 30
Calculate Legal Cost Savings
Legal Cost Savings
14500 = $14,500
Calculate Total Plea Cost
Total Plea Cost = pleaFinancial + pleaLostIncome
46000 = $46,000