Plea Deal Calculator

This calculator applies basic expected-value analysis to the plea-versus-trial decision, treating the plea offer as a certain outcome and the trial path as a probability-weighted gamble. The core calculation multiplies your estimated conviction probability by the potential trial sentence to get an "expected trial sentence" — for example, a 70% conviction chance against a 60-month trial sentence yields 42 expected months — which is then compared directly against the plea offer's guaranteed sentence length to show the sentence savings (or cost) of pleading. The same logic runs in parallel on the financial side: expected trial cost combines defense costs (paid regardless of outcome) with the fine amount weighted by conviction probability, while plea cost simply adds the plea's defense cost and fine, since a plea offer is accepted with certainty.

A separate lost-income estimate assumes a flat $3,500/month income figure and applies it to both the certain plea sentence and the probability-weighted expected trial sentence, then folds that into a bottom-line total-cost comparison. Two additional reference figures round out the analysis: the break-even conviction percentage (the conviction probability at which the plea and expected trial sentences would be numerically equal) and the plea discount (how much shorter the plea offer is compared to the maximum trial sentence, expressed as a percentage). This is a simplified linear model — it doesn't account for non-financial consequences like collateral effects on employment or immigration status, the emotional toll of trial, or the fact that conviction probability estimates are themselves inherently uncertain — so it should support, not replace, a frank conversation with defense counsel about the real tradeoffs.