Mortality & Risk Calculator
Comprehensive actuarial calculator for mortality analysis, life expectancy, actuarial reserves, loss ratios, and underwriting risk assessment.
About this calculator
This calculator bundles five separate actuarial calculations behind one Analysis Type selector, each with its own inputs and formulas: Life Expectancy adjusts a baseline figure (76 years for men, 81 for women, matching general US population averages) up or down for smoking, exercise, BMI, and family history; Mortality Rate interpolates a deaths -per-1,000 figure from a simplified age-and-sex mortality table; Actuarial Reserve estimates a life-policy's reserve using the present value of future benefits minus future premiums; Loss Ratio Analysis computes an insurer's combined ratio from earned premium and incurred losses; and Underwriting Risk estimates 95%/99% Value at Risk and required capital from a portfolio's expected loss ratio and volatility. In the default Life Expectancy mode, smoking status carries the single largest fixed adjustment (a flat 10-year penalty) of any input across its full range, while BMI moves through several smaller impact bands -- no adjustment in the normal 18.5-25 range, then a penalty that grows the further BMI moves outside it, for both being underweight and for obesity -- that matter most once BMI crosses one of those band boundaries; BMI never earns a bonus, it is a penalty-only adjustment.
Current Age, by contrast, has no effect at all on the Life Expectancy figure itself -- it only affects Remaining Years, which is Life Expectancy minus Current Age. The mortality table used throughout this calculator is explicitly a simplified reference table for illustration, not a real insurance-industry actuarial table (such as the SOA's published tables or CDC life tables), and every mode's output should be read as a rough estimate rather than a substitute for an actuary's formal analysis or a licensed underwriter's pricing decision.
Financial Disclaimer
This calculator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Results are estimates based on the inputs provided. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment or financial planning decisions.
Step 1 of 3
How to Use This Calculator
- Choose an Analysis Type: Life Expectancy, Mortality Rate, Actuarial Reserve, Loss Ratio Analysis, or Underwriting Risk.
- For Life Expectancy, enter current age, gender, smoking status, exercise level, BMI, and family health history to get an estimated life expectancy, remaining years, and probability of survival to age 80.
- For Mortality Rate, enter age and gender to get deaths per 1,000, 1-year survival probability, and hazard rate from the mortality table.
- For Actuarial Reserve, enter the death benefit, current age, policy age, annual premium, and interest rate to get the actuarial reserve, cash surrender value, and reserve percentage.
- For Loss Ratio Analysis, enter earned premium, incurred losses, loss adjustment expenses, and underwriting expenses to get the loss ratio, combined ratio, underwriting result, and profitability assessment.
- For Underwriting Risk, enter portfolio size, average premium, expected loss ratio, and loss volatility to get 95%/99% Value at Risk, required capital, and return on capital.
What each input means
- Analysis Type
- Calculation mode to use.
- Current Age
- Your current age in years.
- Gender
- Biological sex for calculation accuracy.
- Age
- Age in years.
- Interest Rate
- Annual interest rate as a percentage.
How this is calculated
Worked example, using the default values
- Identify Input Parameters4 parametersAnalysis Type = 0, Current Age = 40, Gender = 0, Smoking Status = 0 = 22 input(s) provided
- Calculate Life Expectancy75 = 75
- Calculate Remaining YearsRemaining Years35 = 35
- Calculate Probability to Age 8091% = 91%
Engine last updated . Checked against 5 independently-derived tests — how we verify calculators. Built by Paul Gunder, a software engineer, not a licensed financial, medical, or legal professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why doesn't changing my current age affect the Life Expectancy output?
In Life Expectancy mode, the calculator computes a baseline figure from sex and then adjusts it using smoking status, exercise level, BMI, and family history -- your current age never enters that adjustment. Age is used separately to compute Remaining Years (Life Expectancy minus Current Age), so changing your age moves how many years you're estimated to have left without changing the Life Expectancy figure itself.
Is the mortality table used here a real actuarial industry table?
No -- it's explicitly labeled in the underlying data as a simplified reference table for illustration, built with round deaths-per-1,000 figures at 10-year age bands rather than the detailed, continuously updated tables actuaries use professionally, such as tables published by the Society of Actuaries or national life tables from vital statistics agencies. Treat the Mortality Rate mode's output as directionally useful, not as a substitute for a real actuarial table lookup.
What does the combined ratio in Loss Ratio Analysis actually tell you?
Combined ratio adds the loss ratio (claims paid as a share of premium), the loss adjustment expense ratio, and the underwriting expense ratio into one figure. A combined ratio under 100% means the insurer is making an underwriting profit before investment income; over 100% means claims and expenses exceed premium collected, and the insurer is relying on investment returns to stay profitable overall -- this calculator labels results under 95% as excellent and over 105% as poor.
How does the Underwriting Risk mode estimate required capital?
It takes an expected loss ratio and a loss volatility (standard deviation) assumption, then computes 95% and 99% Value at Risk (VaR) using standard normal multipliers (1.645 and 2.326 standard deviations respectively) applied to the expected losses. Required capital is the gap between the 99% VaR figure and expected losses -- essentially, the capital cushion needed to absorb losses in all but the worst 1% of modeled scenarios, assuming losses are roughly normally distributed.
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