Congregation Growth Projection

Project attendance growth using visitor retention, attrition modeling, and capacity planning.

Inputs

Current weekly attendance

Annual growth rate (%)

Retention rate (%)

Years to project

New visitors/month

Tab to move between fields

Results

Projected attendance

369

Annual net growth59

Doubling time (years)2.4

Next capacity needed462

Parking spaces needed148

Visitors needed/mo3

How to Use This Calculator

Enter current weekly attendance and annual growth rate (%) from historical trends.
Set retention rate (%) — how many members stay from year to year — and years to project.
Enter new visitors per month and the projection horizon in years.
Review Projected attendance and Doubling time (years) to understand growth trajectory.
Use Next capacity needed and Parking spaces needed to plan future facility expansion timing.

How the result changes with Retention rate (%)

Retention rate (%)	Projected attendance
55	119
68	196
83	343
95	529

What each input means

Current weekly attendance: Average weekly service attendance.
Annual growth rate (%): Historical or target annual growth.
Retention rate (%): Percentage of members who stay year-over-year.
Years to project: Number of years to forecast.
New visitors/month: Average first-time visitors per month.

What each result means

Projected attendance: Estimated attendance at end of projection.
Annual net growth: New members minus attrition per year.
Doubling time (years): Years to double current attendance.
Next capacity needed: Seating capacity at 80% full.
Parking spaces needed: At 1 space per 2.5 attendees.
Visitors needed/mo: Monthly visitors to offset attrition.

How this is calculated

Worked example, using the default values

Identify Input Parameters
4 parameters
Current weekly attendance = 150, Annual growth rate (%) = 5, Retention rate (%) = 85, Years to project = 5 = 5 input(s) provided
Calculate Projected attendance
Projected attendance
369 = 369
Calculate Annual net growth
Annual net growth = newVisitorsPerMonth * 12 * retentionRatePct / 100
59 = 59
Calculate Doubling time
Doubling time
2.4 = 2.4

The questions that sit next to this one — chosen by subject, including calculators filed under a different category.

Devotional

Church Attendance Tracker Calculator

Track congregation growth by comparing current and prior weekly attendance averages. Projects future attendance and estimates weeks to reach your target.

Arts Admin