Skin Cancer Risk Score
Educational heuristic score based on Fitzpatrick skin type, sunburn history, and family melanoma history. Not a clinical diagnostic tool.
About this calculator
Three well-established, independent risk factors feed this educational heuristic: Fitzpatrick skin type, lifetime sunburn history, and first-degree family melanoma history. The Fitzpatrick scale runs from Type 1 (very fair skin that always burns and never tans) through Type 6 (very dark skin that rarely burns), and published dermatology sources -- including the National Cancer Institute's melanoma overview and the American Academy of Dermatology -- consistently identify fairer skin (lower Fitzpatrick numbers) as carrying meaningfully higher melanoma and skin cancer risk than darker skin, because fair skin has less natural melanin to absorb and block UV radiation. This calculator scores that relationship in the correct direction: a Fitzpatrick 1 contributes more points toward Risk score than a Fitzpatrick 6. Painful sunburns, especially blistering ones, are added as a second independent risk factor because cumulative UV damage and sunburn history are themselves established melanoma risk contributors, separate from skin type. First-degree melanoma history -- a parent, sibling, or child previously diagnosed -- adds a fixed point contribution reflecting the well-documented genetic and shared-environment component of melanoma risk.
Risk score sums these three factors into a single 0-100 number and Risk band translates it into a rough category, but this is explicitly an educational heuristic, not a validated clinical risk-prediction instrument like a formally studied melanoma risk model -- it cannot replace a dermatologist's skin examination, and every risk band should be paired with the same advice: get any changing, new, or concerning mole checked by a professional regardless of what this score shows. Important caveat for darker skin tones: a lower Fitzpatrick-based score reflects lower statistical melanoma incidence, not a lower consequence if melanoma does occur -- American Academy of Dermatology data shows melanoma in Black patients is disproportionately diagnosed at a later, more advanced stage (roughly 22% present with nodal spread at diagnosis, a substantially higher rate than in lighter-skinned patients), which contributes to worse survival outcomes overall. A lower score here is never a reason to skip skin checks. This score also omits total nevus (mole) count, one of the strongest known melanoma predictors in the literature (studies report a relative risk around 6.89 for high nevus counts) -- because it isn't scored, a person with very few sunburns and many moles can still be at meaningfully elevated risk despite a low or moderate result here, while someone with a high sunburn count alone can approach the scale's upper end without any nevus information factored in at all.
Medical Disclaimer
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always consult a qualified healthcare provider before making decisions about your health. Never disregard professional medical advice or delay seeking it because of results from this tool.
Inputs
Results
Risk score
55 / 100
How to Use This Calculator
- Select your Fitzpatrick skin type on the 1-6 scale (1 = very fair, always burns; 6 = very dark, rarely burns).
- Enter your estimated lifetime number of painful or blistering sunburns.
- Select whether a first-degree relative (parent, sibling, or child) has been diagnosed with melanoma.
- Review the risk score (0-100) and the risk band, which categorizes the result as lower, moderate, or higher modeled risk.
- Check the risk factor chart to see how skin type, sunburns, and family history each contribute, and consult a dermatologist for professional screening regardless of your score.
How the result changes with Fitzpatrick (1-6)
| Fitzpatrick (1-6) | Risk score |
|---|---|
| 1 | 63 / 100 |
| 1.5 | 59 / 100 |
| 3 | 47 / 100 |
| 5 | 31 / 100 |
What each input means
- Fitzpatrick (1-6)
- Your Fitzpatrick skin type (1 = very fair, always burns; 6 = very dark, rarely burns). Lower types have higher UV sensitivity.
- Painful sunburns (est.)
- Approximate number of painful or blistering sunburns over your lifetime.
- First-degree melanoma?
- Whether a first-degree relative (parent, sibling, child) has been diagnosed with melanoma.
What each result means
- Risk score
- Higher scores indicate more risk factors present. This is educational only -- not a clinical diagnosis.
- Risk band
- General risk category based on the combined score.
How this is calculated
Worked example, using the default values
- Identify Input ParametersFitzpatrick (1-6) = 2, Painful sunburns (est.) = 3, First-degree melanoma? = 0 = 3 input(s) provided
- Calculate Risk scoreRisk score = (7 - Fitzpatrick) * 8 + burns * 5 + fam55 = 55
- Calculate Risk bandModerate modeled risk = Moderate modeled risk
Engine last updated . Checked against 3 independently-derived tests — how we verify calculators. Built by Paul Gunder, a software engineer, not a licensed financial, medical, or legal professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does a lower Fitzpatrick number produce a higher Risk score?
Fitzpatrick Type 1 skin (very fair, always burns, never tans) has the least natural melanin to absorb and block UV radiation, which is why dermatology sources including the National Cancer Institute consistently list fair skin as a melanoma risk factor. This calculator reflects that relationship directly: skin types with less natural UV protection contribute more points toward Risk score, and darker Fitzpatrick types contribute fewer, matching the direction reported in the published literature.
Does having zero lifetime sunburns bring the score to zero?
No -- Risk score also includes points from Fitzpatrick skin type and, if applicable, first-degree family melanoma history, so a Painful sunburns value of 0 only removes that factor's contribution rather than zeroing the whole score. Someone with very fair skin and a family history of melanoma can still land in a moderate or higher risk band even after entering zero sunburns.
How much does a positive family melanoma history change the result compared to sunburn history?
A "Yes" answer for First-degree melanoma adds a fixed 15 points to Risk score regardless of how many sunburns are entered, while Painful sunburns adds points proportionally, roughly 5 points per sunburn up to the calculator's cap. That means a single family-history "Yes" is roughly equivalent to three additional sunburns' worth of points, reflecting that a documented first-degree relative diagnosis is treated as a meaningfully weighted risk factor on its own.
Is this the same as a clinical melanoma risk-prediction tool a dermatologist would use?
No -- this is an educational heuristic built from three well-documented risk factors added together with fixed weights, not a formally validated clinical risk-prediction model. It's meant to illustrate which factors matter and roughly how they combine, not to replace a dermatologist's evaluation, skin examination, or a validated risk-assessment instrument used in a clinical setting.
I have darker skin and a low score -- does that mean I can skip skin checks? And does this score account for how many moles I have?
No to both. A lower score here reflects lower statistical melanoma incidence for darker Fitzpatrick types, but it says nothing about outcomes if melanoma does occur. American Academy of Dermatology data shows melanoma in Black patients is disproportionately caught at a later stage -- roughly 22% present with nodal spread at diagnosis, compared to lower rates in lighter-skinned patients -- which contributes to worse survival. Separately, nevus (mole) count is not one of this calculator's inputs at all, even though it is one of the strongest predictors of melanoma risk in the published literature (a relative risk around 6.89 for people with high nevus counts) -- a person with many moles and few sunburns can be at meaningfully higher real-world risk than this score suggests, while a high sunburn count alone can push the score toward its upper end without any mole information being considered. Any new, changing, or concerning lesion should be evaluated by a dermatologist regardless of your score, skin tone, or mole count -- treat this score as a partial picture, not a complete risk assessment.
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