Melanoma Risk Calculator

Melanoma risk is not driven by any single factor -- it accumulates from a combination of skin phenotype, mole burden, personal and family history, and cumulative sun exposure, all of which are well-documented risk factors in dermatology guidance from organizations like the American Academy of Dermatology and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network. This calculator combines eight such factors into a single relative-risk multiplier: Fitzpatrick skin type (fair, easily-burning skin types I-II carry higher risk than skin types that tan readily), total mole count and number of clinically atypical (dysplastic) moles, a personal or family history of melanoma, lifetime severe blistering sunburns, and immunosuppression. Each factor multiplies a baseline relative risk of 1.0, and the calculator translates the combined multiplier into an approximate lifetime risk percentage and a 4-tier risk category with a suggested skin-check interval. A prior personal melanoma diagnosis and a very high mole or atypical-mole count are the largest individual contributors in this model, consistent with the general clinical understanding that these are the strongest known risk markers.

This is a screening and education tool, not a validated diagnostic risk-prediction model published in peer- reviewed literature -- the specific numeric weight given to each factor here is an illustrative approximation of well-established directional risk factors, not a citation to a single validated scoring instrument. A dermatologist's full-body skin exam remains the standard for actual risk assessment and mole surveillance. Two calibration notes: first, Lifetime Risk uses a baseline that scales with Fitzpatrick skin type -- roughly 2.6% for skin types I-III (the commonly cited white-population baseline), an intermediate estimate for type IV, and roughly 0.1% for types V-VI, because applying the lighter-skin baseline uniformly would overstate baseline risk for darker skin by roughly 26x before any other risk factor is even considered; this 3-tier scaling is a coarse approximation, not population-specific incidence data. Second, because the eight relative-risk factors compound multiplicatively and can reach very large multipliers for plausible (not just extreme) combinations, Lifetime Risk is compressed through a saturating curve rather than a flat clamp, so combinations with very different real risk levels still display different percentages instead of all collapsing onto the same maxed-out number.