Drought Index Calculator
Estimate a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) category from temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture data. Includes water balance analysis and impact assessment.
About this calculator
This calculator produces a simplified, education-focused analog of the PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), the classification scale U.S. drought monitoring has used since the 1960s. It is not the real Palmer algorithm -- the actual PDSI runs a two-layer soil-moisture bookkeeping model with station-specific calibration coefficients derived from decades of local climate history, which this single-period tool cannot reproduce. Instead it works from a Thornthwaite-style rough estimate of Potential ET (Potential Evapotranspiration) -- proportional to Average Temperature -- compared against Total Precipitation to derive Precip Departure and a Precip Ratio (actual/normal). It then folds in a Temperature Departure penalty: when Average Temperature runs above Normal Temperature, the excess heat (times 3) subtracts from the raw moisture departure before it's normalized by Normal Precipitation and scaled into a PDSI Estimate.
Soil Moisture Capacity plays a secondary, threshold role rather than a first-order one: it nudges the index by +/-0.5 only in the specific case where the Precip Ratio has already fallen below 0.8 (meaningfully below normal), rewarding sites with more than 150mm of storage and penalizing shallower soils. The result is clamped to the standard -6 to +6 PDSI display range and mapped onto the nine official Palmer categories (Extreme Drought at -4 and below, through Near Normal, up to Extremely Wet at +4 and above), with matching Vegetation Impact and Water Supply Outlook labels. Treat the output as an illustrative single-period snapshot, not an operational forecast -- real drought monitoring tracks moisture balance over consecutive months, not one input set.
Inputs
Results
PDSI Estimate
-2.1
Drought Category
Moderate Drought
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter Average Temperature (°C or °F) and Total Precipitation for the period being assessed.
- Input Normal Precipitation and Normal Temperature for the same period at the same location (long-term averages).
- Set Soil Moisture Capacity (mm) — the water-holding capacity of the local soil type.
- Review PDSI Estimate and Drought Category: 0 to -1 = abnormally dry, -2 = moderate, -3 = severe, -4+ = extreme drought.
- Use Precip Departure and Precip Ratio to contextualize how far current conditions deviate from normal.
How the result changes with Average Temperature
| Average Temperature | PDSI Estimate | Drought Category |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | -1.5 | Mild Drought |
| 21 | -1.5 | Mild Drought |
| 42 | -4.2 | Extreme Drought |
| 45 | -4.65 | Extreme Drought |
What each input means
- Average Temperature
- Mean temperature for the period in °C. Higher temperatures increase evapotranspiration demand.
- Total Precipitation
- Total observed precipitation for the period in millimeters.
- Normal Precipitation
- Climatological normal (30-year average) precipitation for this period in mm.
- Normal Temperature
- Climatological normal (30-year average) temperature for this period in °C.
- Soil Moisture Capacity
- Available water capacity of the soil in mm. Sandy soils ~100 mm, loam ~200 mm, clay ~300 mm.
How this is calculated
Worked example, using the default values
- Identify Input Parameters5 parametersAverage Temperature = 28, Total Precipitation = 40, Normal Precipitation = 80, Normal Temperature = 24, Soil Moisture Capacity = 200 = 5 input(s) provided
- Calculate PDSI EstimatePDSI Estimate-2.1 = -2.1
- Calculate Drought CategoryDrought CategoryModerate Drought = Moderate Drought
- Calculate Precip DeparturePrecip Departure-40 = -40
- Calculate Precip RatioPrecip Ratio0.5 = 0.5
Engine last updated . Checked against 2 independently-derived tests — how we verify calculators. Built by Paul Gunder, a software engineer, not a licensed financial, medical, or legal professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this the real Palmer Drought Severity Index the U.S. Drought Monitor uses?
No -- it's a simplified single-period analog. The genuine PDSI, developed by Wayne Palmer in 1965, runs a continuous two-layer soil-moisture water balance calibrated with station-specific coefficients built from decades of climate normals, so a real PDSI value depends on the running history of prior months, not just one period's numbers. This tool borrows Palmer's -6 to +6 scale and his standard nine-category classification (Extreme Drought through Extremely Wet) so the output reads the same way, but it derives the number from a single period's precipitation and temperature departure instead of the full historical bookkeeping.
Why does raising Average Temperature push the index toward drought even with no change in rainfall?
Because higher temperature raises Potential ET (Potential Evapotranspiration) -- the atmospheric demand for moisture that crops and soil have to satisfy before any water counts as "surplus." Once Average Temperature climbs above Normal Temperature, the excess is multiplied by 3 and subtracted from the moisture-departure term that feeds the PDSI Estimate, so the same rainfall total reads as more of a shortfall in a hotter-than-normal period than in a normal one -- exactly how real drought indices treat heat as a stressor, not just a lack of rain.
When does Soil Moisture Capacity actually change the result?
Only when the Precip Ratio (Total Precipitation divided by Normal Precipitation) has already dropped below 0.8, i.e. conditions are meaningfully drier than normal. In that specific case, a Soil Moisture Capacity above 150mm adds +0.5 to the PDSI Estimate (deeper soils buffer a dry spell longer) while shallower soil subtracts 0.5. Above a 0.8 Precip Ratio, Soil Moisture Capacity has no effect on PDSI Estimate at all -- it still feeds the separate Water Deficit and water-balance chart figures, just not the index itself.
What do the Water Deficit and Water Surplus outputs represent?
They're the two one-sided halves of the same comparison: Potential ET (the temperature-driven moisture demand) against Total Precipitation (the actual supply). Water Deficit is how much demand exceeds supply, floored at zero, and Water Surplus is how much supply exceeds demand, also floored at zero -- so for any given period only one of the two can be non-zero, and together they describe whether the period ran a moisture shortfall or a moisture excess independent of the PDSI category itself.
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