Draft Value Chart Calculator

NFL front offices have used pick-value charts since the early 1990s to decide whether a trade is fair, and this calculator runs both the classic and modern versions side by side. The Jimmy Johnson chart, originated by the Dallas Cowboys, models pick value as exponential decay: value ≈ 3270 × e^(-0.053 × (pick − 1)), so the #1 overall pick is worth roughly 3270 points and value falls off steeply through the first round before flattening in later rounds. The Stuart/Hill surplus-value model uses a steeper decay constant (-0.065) and a small constant offset, reflecting modern research showing the Johnson chart significantly undervalues elite top-of-round picks relative to everything after them — teams trading up for a true blue-chip prospect pay less under Johnson's numbers than analytics suggests they should.

You can enter one pick for Side A and up to two picks for Side B; the calculator sums Side B's values under each model and reports the difference (Side A minus Side B) so a positive number means Side A's single pick outweighs Side B's combined picks, and a negative number means Side B wins the trade. Because the two models diverge most sharply at the top of the draft, always check both figures rather than relying on just one — a trade that looks lopsided under Johnson's chart can look close to fair under Stuart/Hill, and vice versa. Neither model accounts for positional need, this year's draft class strength, or player-specific scouting.