Expected Points Added Calculator

Calculate EPA per play for football using down, distance, field position, and play outcome.

Yard Line (before)

Down

Distance (yards)

Yards Gained

Turnover

Touchdown

Tab to move between fields

EPA (Expected Points Added)

-0.01

EP Before Play2.46

EP After Play2.45

Successful Play?0

Yards Gained8

Yards Over Expected3.5

How to Use This Calculator

Enter the offensive Yard Line before the play (1 = own goal line, 99 = opponent 1-yard line).
Set the Down (1-4) and Distance in yards to go for a first down.
Enter Yards Gained on the play (negative for losses).
Set Turnover or Touchdown to 1 if the play resulted in either outcome.
Review EPA (Expected Points Added) — positive means the play helped the offense.

How the result changes with Yards Gained

Yard Line (before): Offensive yard line before the play (1 = own goal line, 99 = opponent 1-yard line).
Down: Down before the play.
Distance (yards): Yards to go for a first down.
Yards Gained: Net yards gained on the play (negative for losses).
Turnover: Whether the play resulted in a turnover.
Touchdown: Whether the play resulted in a touchdown.

EPA (Expected Points Added): Points of value added by this play. Positive = good, negative = bad.
EP Before Play: Expected points from the pre-play game state.
EP After Play: Expected points from the post-play game state.
Successful Play?: 1 if EPA > 0 (successful play), 0 otherwise.
Yards Gained: Net yards gained on the play.
Yards Over Expected: Yards gained minus expected yards (based on ~45% conversion baseline).

Identify Input Parameters
4 parameters
Yard Line (before) = 75, Down = 1, Distance (yards) = 10, Yards Gained = 8 = 6 input(s) provided
Calculate EPA
EPA = epAfter - epBefore
-0.01 = -0.01
Calculate EP Before Play
EP Before Play = estimateEP(yardLineBefore, downBefore, distanceBefore)
2.46 = 2.46
Calculate EP After Play
EP After Play
2.45 = 2.45