Expected Points Added Calculator

A touchdown is treated as a fixed outcome in the model: expected points after the play jump straight to 6.95, representing the touchdown's 6 points plus the near-certain value of the extra point, rather than being derived from the field-position curve like every other outcome. That's why EPA on a touchdown play always equals 6.95 minus whatever the pre-play expected points were — the bigger that pre-play number, the smaller the EPA credit for the score.

On a turnover, the calculator hands the ball to the opponent at the resulting yard line and computes what the opposing offense would expect to score from there — then applies that value as a negative to your team, since it's now working against you. This reflects that a turnover doesn't just end your drive with zero gain, it actively hands the other side a scoring asset, which is why turnover EPA is typically far more negative than a simple incomplete pass.

Each down beyond first subtracts a fixed penalty from the field-position expected-points estimate (0 on 1st down, growing to -2.0 by 4th down), and distances beyond 10 yards to go subtract further based on how far over 10 the distance is. Together these approximate how conversion odds — and therefore scoring potential — decline as downs tick by and yardage to gain increases.

This is a simplified single-play model built from field position, down, and distance alone — it doesn't incorporate score differential, time remaining, or team-specific strength the way real regression-based EP models do. Use the EPA figure here as a relative signal for comparing plays against each other, not as a number that will reproduce a specific published advanced-stats value.