Skip to main content
Calcimator

Soccer Expected Goals (xG) Calculator

Estimate expected goals from shot data including location, type, and accuracy. Evaluate finishing quality and shot selection.

Inputs

Results

Expected Goals (xG)

2.17

xG Per Shot0.12
Shot Accuracy38.9%
xG Outperformance Potential0.66
Xg Inside Box1.2
Xg Outside Box0.24
How to Use This Calculator
  1. Enter Total Shots and Shots on Target for the match or period being analyzed.
  2. Break shots down by location: Shots Inside Box and Shots Outside Box.
  3. Enter Penalty Kicks and Headers to apply their distinct conversion rates.
  4. Review the Expected Goals (xG) value - a penalty is approximately 0.76 xG, an inside-box shot about 0.12 xG, an outside-box shot about 0.03 xG, and a header about 0.06 xG.
  5. Check xG Per Shot and Shot Accuracy to gauge shot selection and finishing, and xG Outperformance Potential to see how much a clinical finisher might exceed the raw xG.

How the result changes with Shots Inside Box

Shots Inside BoxExpected Goals (xG)
41.63
142.53
262.62
362.62

What each input means

Total Shots
Total shots attempted including on-target, off-target, and blocked.
Shots on Target
Shots that required a save or resulted in a goal.
Shots Inside Box
Shots taken from inside the 18-yard penalty area.
Shots Outside Box
Shots taken from outside the 18-yard penalty area.
Penalty Kicks
Number of penalty kick attempts.
Headers
Number of headed shot attempts.

What each result means

Expected Goals (xG)
Estimated number of goals based on shot quality and location. Higher xG means better chances created.
xG Per Shot
Average expected goal value per shot. Higher values indicate better shot selection.
Shot Accuracy
Percentage of shots that were on target.
xG Outperformance Potential
Estimated potential to exceed xG based on shot accuracy and quality. Clinical finishers consistently outperform their xG.

How this is calculated

Worked example, using the default values

  1. Identify Input Parameters
    4 parameters
    Total Shots = 18, Shots on Target = 7, Shots Inside Box = 10, Shots Outside Box = 8 = 6 input(s) provided
  2. Calculate Expected Goals
    Expected Goals
    2.17 = 2.17
  3. Calculate xG Per Shot
    xG Per Shot
    0.121 = 0.121
  4. Calculate Shot Accuracy
    Shot Accuracy
    38.9 = 38.9%

Engine last updated . Checked against 2 independently-derived tests — how we verify calculators.

Related Calculators

The questions that sit next to this one — chosen by subject, including calculators filed under a different category.

Team Sports & Statistics

Lacrosse Shooting & Save Percentage Calculator

Calculate lacrosse shooting percentage, save percentage, and shot efficiency. Evaluate offensive and defensive performance.

Team Sports & Statistics

Hockey Corsi & Fenwick Calculator

Calculate Corsi and Fenwick shot attempt differentials to measure puck possession and territorial advantage in hockey.

Team Sports & Statistics

Football Passer Rating Calculator

Calculate NFL passer rating using the official formula from completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions.

Sports Analytics

Expected Points Added Calculator

Calculate EPA per play for football using down, distance, field position, and play outcome.

More in Sports, Outdoors & Recreation.