Injury Impact Calculator
Estimate team win impact and financial cost when a key player is injured, using VORP-style analysis.
About this calculator
This calculator translates an injury into two things front offices actually track: wins and dollars. It starts from the idea that WAR (or VORP) is denominated in wins over a full season, so dividing it by total games gives a per-game value. Subtracting the replacement player's per-game value from the injured player's per-game value isolates exactly what's lost when a bench player steps in instead — not the player's full value, just the drop-off relative to replacement level. Multiplying that gap by games missed gives total wins lost, which is then subtracted from the team's projected win total to show the adjusted outlook. On the financial side, the model applies a rough league-wide $8M-per-WAR market rate to translate wins lost into a dollar figure, and separately prorates the injured player's salary over the missed games to show "dead money" — money still being paid for zero on-field production.
A player's own cost-per-WAR (salary divided by WAR) is also shown so you can see whether the underlying contract was already team-friendly or an overpay before the injury. Keep the limitations in mind: $8M/WAR and the assumption that lost value converts directly into lost wins are simplifications — actual market rates shift year to year and by sport, and real win-loss impact depends on schedule strength, roster depth, and how the games missed are distributed across the season, none of which this model accounts for. Use the output to compare injuries directionally against each other, not as a precise forecast. Team Payroll is collected here but does not currently factor into any of the wins or dollar figures above.
Inputs
Results
Wins Lost to Injury
0.93
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the injured player's WAR or VORP for a full season.
- Set the total Season Games and Games Missed due to injury.
- Enter the Replacement Player's WAR (use 0 for replacement level).
- Input Team Projected Wins, Team Payroll, and Player Salary.
- Review Wins Lost to Injury, adjusted team wins, and dollar value of lost production.
How the result changes with Player WAR / VORP
| Player WAR / VORP | Wins Lost to Injury |
|---|---|
| 2.5 | 0.46 |
| 3.75 | 0.69 |
| 7.5 | 1.39 |
| 13 | 2.41 |
What each input means
- Player WAR / VORP
- Player's Wins Above Replacement (or VORP) over a full season.
- Season Games
- Total games in the season (MLB=162, NBA=82, NFL=17, NHL=82).
- Games Missed
- Number of games the player will miss due to injury.
- Replacement Player WAR
- Expected WAR of the replacement player over a full season (0 = replacement level).
- Team Projected Wins
- Team's projected wins before the injury.
- Team Payroll ($M)
- Total team payroll in millions of dollars.
- Player Salary ($M)
- Injured player's annual salary in millions.
What each result means
- Wins Lost to Injury
- Estimated wins the team loses due to this injury.
- Adjusted Team Wins
- Team's revised projected wins after the injury.
- % of Season Missed
- Percentage of the total season the player will miss.
- WAR Lost / Game
- Win value lost for each game missed.
- Value Lost ($M)
- Dollar value of lost production (at ~$8M per WAR).
- Dead Money ($M)
- Salary paid during the injury period with no production.
- Player $/WAR ($M)
- How much the team pays per win of value from this player.
How this is calculated
Worked example, using the default values
- Identify Input Parameters4 parametersPlayer WAR / VORP = 5, Season Games = 162, Games Missed = 30, Replacement Player WAR = 0 = 7 input(s) provided
- Calculate Wins Lost to InjuryWins Lost to Injury = valueLostPerGame * gamesMissed0.93 = 0.93
- Calculate Adjusted Team WinsAdjusted Team Wins = teamWins - totalWinsLost89.1 = 89.1
- Calculate % of Season Missed% of Season Missed = (gamesMissed / totalGames) * 10018.5 = 18.5
Engine last updated . Checked against 2 independently-derived tests — how we verify calculators. Built by Paul Gunder, a software engineer, not a licensed financial, medical, or legal professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the replacement player's WAR matter if they're not the one who's hurt?
The whole point of WAR-style value is that it's already measured relative to a freely available replacement-level player, but this calculator lets you go one step further and specify what your actual backup projects to produce. If the backup is better than replacement level (a positive Replacement Player WAR), the wins lost shrink because the drop-off is smaller than the injured player's full value; if the backup is below replacement level, the wins lost grow beyond what a simple 'subtract their WAR' calculation would show.
Why is the dollar value of wins lost different from the dead money figure?
Value Lost converts the wins the team is projected to lose into dollars using the flat $8M-per-WAR market rate — it's an estimate of what that missing production would have been worth on the open market. Dead Money is a completely separate figure: it's simply the injured player's actual salary, prorated for the fraction of the season they'll miss, representing money the team is contractually obligated to pay regardless of on-field output. A player can have a large Dead Money figure but a small Value Lost if their salary is high relative to their WAR.
What does a low Player $/WAR number tell me that the other outputs don't?
Player $/WAR divides the injured player's salary by their WAR, independent of the injury itself, so it's really a measure of contract efficiency rather than injury impact. A low number means the team was already getting good value for the money before the injury happened; comparing it to the $8M league-average rate used elsewhere in the calculator tells you whether this was a team-friendly deal or an overpay, which matters for evaluating how big a loss the injury represents relative to what the team was paying.
How should I interpret Adjusted Team Wins if the season is only partially over?
Adjusted Team Wins simply subtracts the calculated Wins Lost from whatever you enter as Team Projected Wins, so it inherits whatever assumption is baked into that input — if you enter a preseason full-year projection, the output reflects a full-season adjustment; if you enter a rest-of-season projection, treat the result the same way. The calculator doesn't know which one you intended, so keep the games-missed and team-wins inputs on the same time frame for the output to mean what you expect.
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