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Calcimator

Bayesian Inference Calculator

Calculate posterior probability, Bayes factor, likelihood ratio, and evidence strength using Bayes' theorem.

Inputs

Results

Posterior Probability P(H|E)

66.67%

Bayes Factor

2

Likelihood Ratio4
Prior Odds1
Posterior Odds2
Update Factor1.333

Posterior Probability P(H|E)

66.67%

Bayes Factor

2

How to Use This Calculator
  1. Start by filling in the input fields below. Results update instantly as you type, so you can experiment with different values to see how they affect the outcome.
  2. Prior Probability P(H) — Prior probability of hypothesis Accepts values from 0 to 1 (default: 0.5).
  3. Likelihood P(E|H) — Probability of evidence given hypothesis Accepts values from 0 to 1 (default: 0.8).
  4. Evidence Probability P(E) — Marginal probability of evidence Accepts values from 0 to 1 (default: 0.6).
  5. Once all inputs are set, review your results in the Results panel. Here's what each output means:
  6. Posterior Probability P(H|E) — shown as a percentage. This is the primary result of this calculator.
  7. Bayes Factor — shown as a numeric value. This is the primary result of this calculator.
  8. Likelihood Ratio — shown as a numeric value.
  9. Prior Odds — shown as a numeric value.
  10. Posterior Odds — shown as a numeric value.
  11. Update Factor — shown as a numeric value.
  12. Explore the related calculators below if you need deeper analysis or want to approach this topic from a different angle.
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Formula

P(H|E) = P(E|H) × P(H) / P(E)

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