Bayesian Inference Calculator

Calculate posterior probability, Bayes factor, likelihood ratio, and evidence strength using Bayes' theorem.

Prior Probability P(H)

Likelihood P(E|H)

Evidence Probability P(E)

Tab to move between fields

Posterior Probability P(H|E)

66.67%

Bayes Factor

Likelihood Ratio4

Prior Odds1

Posterior Odds2

Update Factor1.333

How to Use This Calculator

Enter the prior probability P(H) for your hypothesis.
Input the likelihood P(E|H): probability of the evidence given the hypothesis is true.
Enter the marginal likelihood P(E) or set it to be calculated from the prior and likelihood.
Review the posterior probability P(H|E) using Bayes' theorem.
Update the posterior as new evidence arrives by using the previous posterior as the new prior.

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Formula

P(H|E) = P(E|H) × P(H) / P(E)

Calculate accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, MCC, AUC, and other classification performance metrics.

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